The Case for Zack Greinke

As the resident Royals homer, I feel the need to make a compelling case for Zack Greinke as the AL Cy Young winner.

Quite honestly, I don't think it's a tough case to make, but when you encounter stories online such as this, you realize that there actually is still a sizable contingent of baseball fans who still regard pitcher wins as if they mean something. Coincidentally, these are probably the same people who like productive outs and "playing the game the right way."


In the article hyperlinked above, you will find the following sentences or phrases emphasized in reference to Greinke's recent inability to will the Royals to victory (emphasis in original):

• "[if Greinke continues to have bad starts] he will fade back into mediocrity...where he belongs."

• "Greinke has always been a 'head case'..."

• (Comparing Greinke to Red Sox ace Josh Beckett) "Beckett and Greinke have similar talent, however it’s Josh’s mental toughness and bulldog mentality on the mound that makes him an elite front of the rotation pitcher."

• "Until he proves that he can maintain statistics such as the ones he accrued in 2009’s first half for an entire season, I have no problem maintaining my opinion that he is just another decent pitcher with a lot of potential."

Now before I address any of this, you may wonder why I'm taking issue with a writer who is so woefully off base. And I realize that picking on someone with such an inability to evaluate baseball talent is pretty much just like taking candy from a baby. But I take offense to views like this because this type of thinking still goes on with baseball writers today. Which means that Greinke, if he continues to pitch this well down the stretch, will unjustifiably be denied the AL Cy Young this year.

Let's get one thing out of the way. Calling Greinke a "head case" is simply a cowardly and offensive way of pointing out that Zack has social anxiety disorder. At best, this is like saying Josh Hamilton has always been a junkie. At worst, this is tantamount to making fun of Magic Johnson for having HIV. Either is reprehensible.

The remainder of the author's argument and statements suggest that by looking at Beckett's ability to win more games, one can infer that there must be something about Beckett himself that makes him superior to Greinke. Now, I will start with the disclaimer that Beckett has very obviously had a much better history than Greinke, and given that Beckett has significant postseason experience, I may be persuaded to defer to an argument that one would take Beckett over Greinke for a Game 7 situation. However, given that Zack is only 25 (Beckett is 29), Zack is the much more promising (and better, at this point) pitcher.

Consider the following: By FIP, Josh Beckett has never in his career had a season as good as the one Greinke is having in 2009.

Greinke 2009 thus far: 2.39
Beckett's 2007: 3.08*

*It could be argued that Beckett's 2003 with the Marlins was better. He posted a 2.94 FIP, although he pitched only 142 innings that year compared to 200.2 in 2007. But either way, neither is close to Greinke's 2009.

As an aside, if you are unfamiliar with this FIP statistic I'm using, suffice it to say that the number is made to look like an ERA for familiarity purposes, but the statistic isolates only those factors over which the pitcher has control; namely, strikeouts, walks, and home runs. If you are curious as to why hits are not included in this list, a good explanation is given on Wikipedia here.

Anyway, let's look at some other current big name pitchers and their respective career-high full-season FIP.

Johan Santana 2005: 2.80 - inexplicably finished 3rd in Cy Young vote
Roy Halladay 2002: 2.97 - interestingly did not receive a single Cy Young vote
C.C. Sabathia 2008: 2.91
Felix Hernandez 2009: 3.10
Dan Haren 2008: 3.01

I leave out Tim Lincecum intentionally because his year thus far is comparably, if not more impressive. TLinc is posting a 2.23(!) FIP at the moment. Fortunately, he pitches in the Senior Circuit (due to age of the league -- obviously not quality) and therefore does not pose any real threat to my claim that Greinke is not only currently the obvious choice for the Cy Young but also currently the best pitcher in baseball.

If you prefer some more traditional stats, here they are:

Strikeouts: 197 -- 3rd MLB, 2nd AL (Verlander)
Earned Runs: 49 -- 5th MLB, 1st AL
K/BB: 5.05 -- 4th MLB, 2nd AL (Halladay)
WHIP: 1.12 -- 10th MLB, 2nd AL (Jarrod Washburn)

If I am counting correctly, Zack has 7 more starts this year. He currently has a 12-8 record. His winning all 7 is beyond the realm of possibility given that he plays for a AAA-caliber team. So in a best-case scenario in which he wins the next 5, he ends the year with 17 wins.

Unfortunately, since 1975, only 7 starting pitchers have won the Cy Young in their respective league with 17 or fewer wins. If we adopt a more realistic scenario in which Zack gets only 4 more wins the rest of the season, the number of starting pitchers since '75 who have won the award with 16 or fewer wins drops to 4. No starting pitcher in that time frame has ever won with 15 or fewer. All these numbers are out of 66 awards given. So the odds are certainly stacked against him, in other words.

Regardless, Zack is having an absolutely historic season. He set the Royals single-game strikeout record Tuesday night (with 15, no surprise that the Royals had an absurdly low franchise record... don't even ask about the franchise single-season home run record*) and is having arguably the best season any Royals pitcher has ever had. If he continues to pitch as he has so far this season, Zack undoubtedly deserves the Cy Young.

*Steve Balboni, during the Royals' 1985 World Championship year, crushed 36 bombs.