Follow The Productive Out through the MLB playoffs

Thursday, September 24, 2009

CC Sabathia: Master of the Second Half?

Since our comments section is apparently incapable of supporting charts, "John" would like me to pass along the following counter to Jason's response:



Post All-Star: Last 4-Years (2006-2009)
 Overall
ERA
RA
W
L
GS
CG
IP
R
ER
HR
BB
SO
HR/9
BB/9
K/9
WHIP
Jon Lester
 Post All-Star
3.73
3.76
22
6
45
0
277
116
115
26
101
234
0.84
3.28
7.59
1.32
CC Sabbathia
 Post All-Star
2.43
2.95
31
14
57
11
418
137
113
26
81
386
0.56
1.74
8.31
1.09


Now of course, Lester’s 2nd half of 2007 included his first starts after returning from his bout with cancer, and certainly his performance wasn’t during that period wasn’t up to his normal standards. However, even if we were to exclude that season, a discrepancy would remain. This should lend further credibility to the notion that CC is a second half pitcher who would be a better option in the playoffs. A counter to this argument would be their stunningly similar post All-Star performances in 2009 (see below):

2009 Post All-Star
ERA
RA
W
L
GS
CG
IP
R
ER
HR
BB
SO
AVG
HR/9
BB/9
K/9
WHIP
Jon Lester
2.57
2.57
6
1
12
0
80.2
23
23
6
25
84
0.216
0.67
2.81
9.43
1.11
CC
2.54
2.84
10
1
13
0
92
29
26
7
22
91
0.231
0.68
2.15
8.90
1.09


Thoughts?

(Still working on chart formatting... bear with me. You get the point.)
Posted by Jeff at 12:30 AM
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2 comments:

Jason said...

Table formatting aside, if we want to use past performance (as opposed to just 2009's performance) to determine who is the better option in the playoffs, I offer the following.

Sabathia and Lester have both made 5 postseason starts in their careers. In those 5 starts:

*Lester has pitched 32.1 innings to Sabathia's 25.
*Lester has a career postseason record of 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA; Sabathia is 2-3 with a 7.92(!) ERA.
*Career postseason, Sabathia is giving up a STAGGERING 11.9 hits per 9 innings, combined 7.9 BB/9; Lester is at 7.5 H/9 and 2.3 H/9.
*Sabathia has failed to turn in a quality start in the postseason since 2001, against Seattle.
*Intangibles, you say? Well Lester has already pitched the clinching game of a World Series (a few months removed from cancer, no less) and has a history of good playoff performance (on the whole).

So, be my guest, take CC Sabathia over Jon Lester. But, if winning is your ultimate goal, I think you're making a mistake.

September 24, 2009 9:24 AM
Jason said...

I would also like to add, that pick-pocketing the last 4 years post-All Star break really isn't fair to Lester. Beginning in '06, Sabathia had FIVE big league seasons under his belt while Lester had, well, none.

I recognize it is the only basis for comparison, but that does not make it accurate.

September 24, 2009 9:26 AM

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