Let's start by looking at traditional numbers:
- Pitcher A has the best ERA, most complete games/shutouts, has given up half the walks of either Pitcher B or C in roughly the same amount of innings as Pitcher B but almost 30 more than Pitcher C.
- Pitcher B has the most wins, with roughly the same ERA as Pitcher C. He has given up fewer hits in the same amount of innings as Pitcher A, but struck out 7 less.
- Pitcher C has the most strikeouts of all three, and done so in 30 less innings. He's given up the least amount of hits but the same amount of walks as Pitcher B, and has the fewest wins.
- Pitcher A is posting stellar numbers in the BB/9 and K/BB ratios, while facing the highest opponent's batting average. His fielding independent pitching (FIP, see here for explanation) is second best in the group (barely) at 3.13, which, when compared to his ERA, suggests he has actually been the tiniest bit lucky this season. He has stranded almost 78% of baserunners this year.
- Pitcher B sports the lowest BABIP of the bunch, as well as the lowest WHIP. But his K/9 and K/BB ratios don't stack up in comparison to Pitchers A and C. He does keep the ball in the ballpark, but his FIP at 3.37 is over .2 higher than the next closest, and suggests that his ERA at 3.31 is almost spot on.\
- Pitcher C blows away the competition in K/9, averaging over a K per inning. His K/BB ratio, while good, is overshadowed by Pitcher A. His FIP of 3.11 actually suggests that he has faced bad luck this year when compared to his ERA of 3.33. In light of this, his opponent's batting average, BABIP, and WHIP are all probably slightly inflated. Even so, he has managed to strand just over 77% of baserunners this year.
So who is it? Who is the true King of the AL East pitchers? Jon Lester of the Boston Red Sox. Perhaps a bit surprising, since many consider him the number two pitcher on his own staff. But, based on these numbers he narrowly edges out Roy Halladay and perhaps furthers the gap a bit more over CC Sabathia, and the Red Sox should feel confident heading towards the playoffs that they have the most dominant pitcher in their division in 2009.
Posts
4 comments:
I think the choice between Halladay or Lester as your postseason ace basically comes down to a coin flip.
Sabathia is a fine starter, but I don't think he belongs in the same conversation as these two. He has also benefited from 7.8 (!) runs of support per game... so the "wins" argument is obviously without merit. He's been bailed out of 3 losses when he left the game with the Yankees trailing their opponents.
As you mention, Lester has the better K/9, while Halladay sports the better K/BB. I'm not sure what the relative weights of Ks to BBs are, but I assume FIP does a good job of it, so it looks like Lester's strikeout ability is at least equally valuable as Halladay's uncanny control.
One important distinguishing factor is that while Halladay's strand rate (of which standard variation is mainly a product of luck) is a bit higher than his career average of 72%, Lester's is right around his career average.
I suppose that the final nod may come to some (gasp!) intangible factor. Maybe Lester's postseason experience (poor Halladay). Maybe Halladay's more proven track record. Maybe the fire in their eyes.
I'd take Lester.
All fine and dandy, but you guys are ignoring the fact that CC had (and historically tends to have) a terrible April, which puts a severe drag on many of his season long numbers. Now, obviously this does not mean we should be ignoring his April when considering his Cy Young merits, but we should certainly take a look at this when considering which pitcher we would rather have in the playoffs, no?
We can do two things here: The first, is just to compare April stats:
Lester was 1-2, with a 5.40 ERA. Opposing batters held an OPS against him of .853 slugging over .450.
Comparatively, CC was 2-3 with a 4.73 ERA, while only allowing a .717 OPS to opposing hitters, who slugged .372.
The only significant advantage Lester held at that point in the season was he still had a high K rate while CC's was a bit low. So, if anything, April suggests both pitchers were a bit unlucky and unpolished early in the year, and perhaps, Lester had a deeper hole to dig out of to put up the better stats that he has today.
Here's the second way to look at it, "entire season - April":
Lester is 13-5 with a 2.95 ERA. His opponents OPS is .624 and they are slugging only .338 over 164.2 innings pitched with 182 Ks.
Sabathia is 17-5 (hello 7.8 runs per game) with a similar 3.06 ERA. Opponents' OPS is .635, while slugging .359 over 188 innings pitched with 167 Ks.
There is far less variance in Sabathia's performance, except for the ERA and W-L, which is largely a product of teammates' performances outside of his control. It pretty clear that Lester was facing some bad luck, (a BABIP in the realms of .420) So eliminating April seems to benefit the argument for Lester as well.
In anticipation of your next argument (the bandbox that is the new Yankee Stadium) Lester still holds the edge for park adjusted ERA, with a 142 ERA+ to Sabathia's 135. They are very similar, but the difference is clearly there.
go SOX!
Post a Comment