The Phillies' Quest To Repeat

The question here concerns the Philadelphia Phillies and their attempt to become the first major league team to repeat as World Series champions since the 1999-2000 New York Yankees (who pulled off a three-peat from '98 to 2000), and the first National League team to repeat since the Sparky Anderson-led Cincinnati Reds of 1975-1976. Let's break it down in the simplest way possible, starting with a nod to recent historical precedence.



The Case Against Repeating:

1. The battle with history.

Forget the 33-year drought between NL World Series repeat victors. Fighting those kind of historical odds stacked against you would be tougher than lasting 30 seconds in the ring with Brock Lesnar, and wholly irrelevant to these current Phils, who need only to flip the calendar back to last October to recapture those moments of utter glory which have been so few and far between in the city of Philadelphia over the past several decades. But examining where history may stamp its indubitable death-knell on these '09 Phillies, we'll observe the plight of every 21st century NL World Series winner's next season to see what fate alies the Phils. Because, while the game has changed and progressed rapidly since the Reds back-to-back feat in the mid 70's, recent history will give us at least somewhat of an accurate looking-glass into the tenuous weeks ahead.

The 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks (yes, employer of the immortal Byung-Hyun Kim and his infamous October/November gopherballs that brought back all the ghosts of Yankee Stadium Past) captured the Fall Classic in fantastic walk-off fashion in seven games against the Yankees and all was beautiful in the baseball world as the evil dragon known as the Yankee empire was finally slayed. Next year's honeymoon season for Arizona saw the D-Backs go 98 and 64 and capture the NL West crown. They barely had time to unpack their bags in the postseason, however, as they were swept by the St. Louis Cardinals in the Division Series in 3 straight games.

The 2003 Florida Marlins became America's favorite underdog story, as they too defeated the mighty Yankees, 4 games to 2. You may recall that World Series by its unofficial title, A Star Has Arrived: The Josh Beckett Story. (Important not to forget that the Marlins were the recipients of a seldom-granted bye in between the Division Series and the World Series, also referred to as the Chicago Cubs.) The 2004 Marlins lacked the staying power and the unique ability to capture the moment their team displayed the previous year, going 83 and 79, finishing in 3rd place in the NL East and missing the postseason.

Our last National League World Series champion before last season was the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals. Hailed by some as the most mediocre WS winner ever, with an 83-78 regular season record (falling a few games short of the .763 winning percentage compiled by the 1906 Chicago Cubs [116 and 36]...yes, even THAT Cubs team still managed to lose the World Series) that was still good enough to finish first in the lackluster NL Central, the Cardinals nevertheless got hot at the right time and won the World Series. That Cardinals team was also assisted by a Detroit Tigers pitching staff that suddenly forgot how to field their positions, committing five errors in five games, as the Cardinals vanquished the Tigers four games to one. The 2007 St. Louis Cardinals had no such rabbits up their sleeve. With a record of 78 and 84, the Cards missed the playoffs and finished 3rd in the NL Central.

2. The Enigma known as Brad Lidge

Three things to keep in mind before we delve into the numbers: A) No team rolls through the playoffs, winning every game by 5+ runs. Translation: a quality closer in the postseason is a necessity, not a luxury. B) Brad Lidge was perfect in save opportunities last season. C) Brad Lidge is not perfect in save oppotunities this season.

Phillies fans know these numbers all too well, but just in case you've been in ancient Rome over the last 6 months, let us provide a refresher in the form of '08 Lidge vs '09 Lidge. (Note: the following isn't for the faint of heart. Turn away if you're experiencing heart problems, are pregnant, nursing, have high blood pressure, or if ugly pitching statistics make you queasy).

2008 Brad Lidge:
G W L SV BS IP    H  R  ER HR BB  K  ERA WHIP BAA
72 2 0  41  0  69.1 50 17 15   2   35 92  1.95  1.23  .198

2009 Brad Lidge:
G W L SV BS  IP    H  R  ER  HR BB K  ERA WHIP BAA
63 0 8  31  11 55.1 69 50  46  11  34 59 7.48   1.86 .305

It doesn't require an astrophysics degree from MIT to calculate just how far Lidge has fallen from his '08 perfection. The question is, can he regain his 2008 championship form in time for the Phillies to have a steady option at closer for the '09 playoffs? If six months of mind-numbing ineptitude aren't enough to tell you this guy doesn't have it this year, then by all means, enjoy your vacation from reality for a bit longer.

3. An offense that gives new meaning to the term "inconsistent"

They can bludgeon you with a deadly 20-run assault or they can make Tim Redding look like 1999 Pedro Martinez. Which Phillies offense will show up for the postseason? Examining this Jekyll and Hide offense, the Phillies rank 1st in the NL in HRs with 211, which is 31 more than 2nd-place Colorado with 180. Philadelphia ranks just 12th in average, at .257 and most of their damage with the long ball has come in June and July, when the offense was firing on all cylinders. The Phils rank 24th out of 30 major league teams (and last among all potential playoff teams) in batting average with runners in scoring position, hitting just .252. The most alarming aspect of this offense is when they aren't connecting for home runs, this team doesn't score. The Phillies rank 1st in the majors in percentage of runs coming from home runs, at 46%. There isn't any Billy Beane Moneyball quality to this Phillies team; to say the Phillies offense is poor at manufacturing runs is like saying the Titantic would have been better off not hitting that iceberg.

4. The competition.

Last year the Phillies were fortunate to face a deer-in-the-headlights Milwaukee Brewers team in the opening round, with only one true weapon (C.C. Sabathia). Once they cracked the mystique and aura of C.C.'s greatness and he became merely another pitcher in the way of the inevitable, that series quickly and uneventfully ended with Philly winning 3 of 4. In the NLCS, the Phillies faced a Dodgers team with plenty of holes of its own. Even looking past LA's youth and playoff inexperience, this series mainly turned on Derek Lowe's inability to locate a first-pitch sinker to Chase Utley in game one, and a fatal mistake by Jonathan Broxton in game four of falling behind 3 and 1 on dead-fastball/beer-league softball lookalike Matt Stairs, culminating in an 8th-inning, go ahead Ruthian blast set to land sometime next week. The point is, with a seasoned Manny Ramirez having a full-year of NL pitching to feast on, an Andre Ethier unconscionable clutch meter wavering somewhere between 99 and two million, a resurgent Chad Billingsley and a coming-of-age Clayton Kershaw mixed with the sly veteran Randy Wolf, these '09 Dodgers pose a much more formidable and potentially lethal threat to the Phillies NL pennant repeat chances. Additionally, there's no unproven Tampa Bay Rays for the Phillies to feast on if they do indeed make it back to the World Series this season. Almost certainly they will have to do battle with the Yankees or the Red Sox, and if not, face the pitching rich Detroit Tigers or the slugging LA Angels. Oh, and in case that's not enough, most likely standing in the Phillies way in the NLCS is the St. Louis Cardinals, who only boast the two of the three front-runners for the Cy Young (Wainwright and Carpenter), and a somewhat decent hitter named Albert.


The Case For Repeating:

1. The Pressure is Gone

Talk to any Phillies fan born between the years 1984 and 2007 (okay, maybe a baby born in 2006 has other priorities) and they'll tell you they just want a championship. Any kind. Any form. Anyhow. This was a town tormented by the big-game shortcomings of Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid, a town teased by late-season--but ultimately a few games short--surges by their beloved Phils for greater part of the last decade, a town that saw the Flyers reach the dreaded good but not great status, and a town that gave its heart to Allen Iverson only to be greatly overmatched by a dominant Kobe/Shaq Lakers squad in its only Finals appearance in 2000. Hell, take it a step further: this was a town willing, in 2004, to adopt a Chester County horse (hey, that's close enough to Philadelphia) and ride it to the Triple Crown promised land. Alas, after cruising to wins in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, Smarty Jones finished second at the Belmont Stakes, continuing a long run of Philly "sports" futility that existed for 25 years until that magical late-October night 11 months ago. There are those that say the curse of Philly sports started and ended with the building of the Liberty Place Skyscraper, which ominiously loomed above the statue of William Penn atop City Hall. There's also a large number of conspiracy theorists that say we never landed on the moon. The fact was, the Philadelphia sports teams were never quite good enough to win a championship in that morbid 25-year plunge of ineptitude that vanquished in the delirium of last October. But now, all that is a thing of the past. The pressure is washed away with the ghosts of Ronde Barber's 92-yard back-breaking interception return that pushed the mute button on creaky old Veterans Stadium in '02, with Mitch Williams best Brad Lidge impersonations of '93, with Allen Iverson's tragicomic stance on practice, and with Eric Lindros yearly concussion-fest that kept the Flyers from ever sipping from the Cup.

2. The "Gamer" factor

Ask what word comes to mind that best describes the Phillies scrappy all-star 2nd baseman Chase Utley and scouts, fans, teammates, opponents alike will say "gamer." Simply put, the guy will do whatever it takes to win, including putting his body on the line on a daily basis with little regard to consequence. It's hard to quantity this category without watching Utley play on a daily basis, but perhaps the most telling stat is he's the major-league leader in hit-by-pitches over the last two seasons and he's on pace to league the majors again this year. His hard-nosed style has rubbed off on outfielder teammates Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth, who both can be seen on the highlight reels on an almost nightly basis sacrificing their bodies to get the baseball. It's hard to fathom Utley was born in the Los Angeles area (where laid-back and cool/calm/collected/aloof--see Hamels, Cole--make up most of the norm), as his all-out passion and energy seem to be Philadelphia born and bred, but the Philly fans have adopted him as one of their own from day one.

3. Road warriors

These Phillies don't mind going into opposing ballparks and taking care of business, as their major-league best 47 and 31 road record illustrates. That stems from a variety of factors, but most notiably can be attributed to their veteran leadership and their been there/done that mentality. In last year's playoffs, despite going a perfect 6 and 0 at home, the Phils went a respectable 4 and 3 on the road, splitting a pair in Milwaukee and Tampa Bay and taking two of three at Dodger Stadium.

4. A revamped starting rotation

When GM Ruben Amaro Jr. went out and got Cliff Lee at the trading deadline, the reaction was cautiously optimistic. Phillies fan weren't greatly disappointed with the move, but with every set of eyeballs in the Delaware Valley longingly attached to the great Roy Halladay, there was a slight sense of let-down. After all, this was a guy whose nasty repertoire of pitches led him to a 10 and 3 record with a 2.85 ERA at the All-Star break. Mainly, there was every reason to salivate over that unfair sinker that would look beautiful at the homer-friendly Citizens Bank Park. Amaro resisted the urge to sell the farm for Halladay and instead sent a package of mid-level prospects to the Cleveland Indians for Cliff Lee, a guy who, seemingly lost in the mix, DID win last year's American League Cy Young Award and posted a respectable 4.01 pre-All Star ERA. All Lee's done since the break is go 7 and 2 with a 2.65 ERA, helping the Phillies turn a close NL East lead into a runaway. Halladay, on the other hand, has gone 5 and 7 with a 3.21 ERA since the break.

Cole Hamels hasn't been nearly the October hero he was last year for the majority of this season, but the World Series MVP has shown encouraging signs of progress lately. After treading water for the first five months of the season, including a 4.87 ERA before the All Star break, Hamels is rounding into form when it counts, posting a 3.24 ERA post-break, including a 2.45 ERA in September.

Joe Blanton has been the Phillies most consistent starting pitcher all season long. He won't wow you with any of his stuff (he may, however, be the go-to choice in an impromptu competitive eating contest in the clubhouse), but his 3.03 ERA after the break and consistent attack of the strike zone (3 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio) provide a more than adequate third starter option behind Lee and Hamels. Blanton has spent the majority of the season working his ERA back down from a horrendous start (8.41 ERA in April) but has rounded into form and will be a big part of any Phillies success in the postseason.

Pedro Martinez won't evoke many memories of the Pedro who anchored the Red Sox a decade ago and became the gold standard for pitching dominance from the years '97 to '03, but he's out to prove he still has a bit left in the tank. Since the Phillies signed him in July for just one millon dollars, Pedro has gone 5 and 1 with a 3.32 ERA, including a 0.90 home ERA in 20 innings at Citizens Bank Park. Martinez was thought to be mainly an afterthought in the Phillies rotation, but his remarkable resurgence has some penciling him in for the #3 spot in the postseason rotation. Whether the Phillies decide to go with Blanton or Martinez, they know they're in good hands either way.

The Bottom Line:

After weighing every facet, and debating the pros and cons of the Phillies chances to repeat, it all boils down to one crucial factor: bullpen incompetence. With the late-inning meltdowns becoming an all-too-common theme night after night after night for these '09 Phillies, they'll be watching from home during this year's World Series.