Beating a Dead Horse

On Wednesday, Mark gave us an interesting and thought-provoking analysis of Alex Rodriguez's reputation as being a hitter who simply crumbles in the postseason. Ask anyone within the Evil Empire which current Yankee is Mr. Wets-Himself-in-the-Clutch and who is Mr. November, and you'll almost invariably get "A-Rawd" and "Jeetuh," or some similar variation, respectively. Jeter, according to many, just has something about him – that savoir faire or je ne sais quoi – that puts him on a pedestal among postseason performers. Rodriguez, on the other hand, is routinely ridiculed as a slaphappy, panty-waisted diva who lacks the testicular fortitude required of the month of October.

Now, I have no idea why I feel compelled to defend Alex Rodriguez. I actively hate the Yankees. I don't particularly like the guy, as a person or as a player. But dammit, the guy is a phenomenal hitter. And a legitimate case can be made that even assuming Rodriguez has been anti-clutch for the Yankees in the postseason, this really doesn't mean much about him as a player.

When compared to the ultra-clutch Jeter, though, A-Rod's weakness is really glaring. Consider Jeter's 2001 World Series against the D-Backs:

28 PA, .148 BA, .179 OBP, .259 SLG, .438 OPS

Whoa! Magical! Or his performance in the (in)famous 2004 ALCS vs. the Red Sox:

38 PA, .200 BA, .333 OBP, .233 SLG, .567 OPS

That's the guy I want in October! How about his 2007 ALDS vs. the Indians:

17 PA, .176 BA, .176 OBP, .176 SLG, .353 OPS

That's better than Tony Pena, Jr.'s 2009 OPS! (.250) Clutchey McClutcherson!

Look, my point is not to suggest that Jeter has performed as poorly in the playoffs as Rodriguez. On the contrary, Rodriguez's stats are clearly worse in the playoffs than they are in the regular season (Career .965 OPS vs. Postseason .844 OPS and a .790 Yankee Postseason OPS), and Jeter's stats are almost exactly the same in the postseason as they are in the regular season (Career .847 OPS vs. .846 Postseason OPS).

My point is this: Everyone thinks of Yankee A-Rod as being exceptionally unclutch. We base this notion on 110 plate appearances. And A-Rod gained this label after even fewer plate appearances. This is not a sample size significant enough to suggest anything about Rodriguez's postseason abilities. I can take 110 consecutive Jeter postseason plate appearances and show you a player that folds in the clutch. I can take another 110 and show you one of the best clutch hitters of all time. Jeter, however, has 562 postseason plate appearances. This is clearly a large enough sample size, which perhaps explains why his postseason numbers are almost identical to his regular season career numbers.

The nature of the postseason is that we reward players who perform when a championship is on the line. There is plenty of evidence that clutch hitting is simply not a repeatable statistic. So when we see a player who has performed well in the postseason, we retroactively apply the "clutch" label to them, and it usually sticks. Similarly, when a player folds during a couple of the most important parts of a game, we label him the exact opposite, and it's hard for the player to shake it. When the player is one of the highest-paid athletes of all time, his failures at key times are magnified. So yes, we can ridicule him for having failed in specific instances, but I think it is incorrect to state that Rodriguez "doesn't have what it takes" to hit the ball when the game is on the line, especially when we don't have a statistically significant set of data on which to base it.

When Rodriguez has 562 postseason plate appearances and is still giving up .175 OPS points, then get back to me.

PS: Make sure to catch ZG against the Twins Saturday, and pray that CC doesn't get to the magical 20-win mark. Apparently Girardi is starting the A-squad to try to foil Zack's chances…