Game 1: Twins at Yankees

Those pesky Minnesota Twins, fresh off their unbelievably inspiring 6-5 12th-inning victory over the Detroit Tigers (not to mention a 17-4 finish to the season), are awarded the opportunity to face arguably the most talented team in baseball today. The start of the game is a mere 25 hours after the start of yesterday's epic game, and no more than 20 hours after the finish.

In other words, these Twins -- though resilient -- are tired. Yesterday's game saw the use of 20 of the 25 players on the roster. Scott Baker had a solid start (although admittedly not as strong as Porcello's), and was relieved by the following laundry list: Jon Rauch, Jose Mijares, Matt Guerrier, Joe Nathan, Jesse Crain, Ron Mahay, and Bobby Keppel. According to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, the following pitchers are expected to be on the Twins postseason roster:

SP Scott Baker
SP Nick Blackburn
SP Carl Pavano
SP Brian Duensing
SP Francisco Liriano
CL Joe Nathan
RP Ron Mahay
RP Jose Mijares
RP Jesse Crain
RP Matt Guerrier
RP Jon Rauch
RP Bobby Keppel

8 of these 12 pitchers were used last night. Today, the Twins start rookie LHP Brian Duensing (5-2, 3.64 ERA). Duensing, who joined the Twins organization in 2006, has risen at a steady rate through the system. With his steady ascension has come an equally steady decrease in his K/9 numbers and an increase in his BB/9 numbers (both of which are to be expected). What has resulted is a pitcher whose K/BB ratio through 84 MLB innings pitched sits at 1.71 -- not terribly impressive, but nothing to sneeze at, either. He has allowed only .75 HR/9, due in part to his unsustainable 6.6% HR/FB ratio.

Duensing relies primarily on his low-90s fastball, offset by his low-80s curveball and changeup and a flips a more seldom-used curveball in the low-70s. He sports a pretty low line drive rate, which may be more a product of only having thrown 84 innings than an ability to induce softer contact. His groundball rates are pretty pedestrian.

Duensing is obviously in an unfamiliar, unexpected, high-pressure situation. As he told the Star-Tribune, "I kind of surprised myself, actually. I was just hoping to be a September call-up. I wasn't planning on making the team out of spring training.'' The 26 year old is now faced with one of the most daunting tasks imaginable in baseball: limit the damage done by the Yankees' murderer's row to give the Twins a chance to win Game 1 at New Yankee Stadium.

You may have heard of the Yankees' Game 1 starter. Cy Young candidate C.C. Sabathia takes the mound tonight in what will be his most scrutinized start in his Yankee career. If he wants to avoid the Alex Rodriguez "unclutch" label so quickly given by Yankee fans, he needs to prove himself immediately. Such are the responsibilities accompanying a $161 million contract.

The Yankees are a -300 favorite in Vegas. ESPN AccuScore gives the Twins a 24% chance of winning Game 1. If the Twins are able to pull off a Game 1 victory, it will certainly be of the David-over-Goliath variety. I think considering the Twins fatigue, the inexperience of their rookie starter, and the bravado of the first-ever playoff game in New Yankee, Game 1 goes to New York.

Prediction: 8-2 NYY.