In the Major League Baseball equivalent of a penalty kick shootout, the Minnesota Twins play host to the Detroit Tigers in a single game that will determine who gets to be America's Favorite Team for at least 4 games.
Our highly reliable poll shows that 66% of Americans believe that the Twins will prevail today over Detroit. This poll is extremely scientific and is meant to reflect the exact percentage chance that the Twins will win today.*
*Actually, not at all. By 66%, I mean that I voted for the Twins twice and Jason voted for the Tigers once. ESPN AccuScore gives them a 65% chance, though. So we got that going for us. Which is nice.
Your matchup for the day is Scott Baker (15-9, 4.36) vs. Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.04). Aside from the Metrodome advantage, seems like a pretty even matchup, right? Wrong. Baker has been the significantly better pitcher this year, by most of the peripherals. He has a 3.48 K/BB ratio to Porcello's 1.62, has allowed HRs at a similar clip despite Porcello's ability to induce more grounders, and has a BABIP more in line with the league average than Porcello's (although Porcello's is .280 -- not so shockingly low as to suggest a huge regression, but enough to suggest a bit of luck this year).
Now, we can talk about numbers until our faces turn blue, but for today's game I'm going to defer to the great Herm Edwards, who once said, "You play the game on the field, not in the paper." Never have the words of a coaching legend rung so true.
My unofficial prediction that one should never rely on for sports betting purposes: Twins 4-1.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
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2 comments:
With gametime in two hours, I have to say that despite my voting for the Tigers, I think the Twins are going to win tonight.
And, I will make a bold prediction that the Twins will make a series of it against the Yankees, but will lose in 5.
I'm rooting for the Metrodome ... but I can't see either team winning more than 1 against the Yankees (reverse jinx in place)
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