Wednesday, October 28, 2009

World Series: Phillies-Yankees

Broadway vs. Broad Street. The City That Never Sleeps vs. The City That Loves to Hate. Six hands of rings vs. two fingers of rings. Ballpark sushi vs. cheesesteaks. Payroll of 208$ million vs. 111$ million. (Ok, it's not exactly David vs. Goliath or the haves vs. the have-nots, but there's certainly a gap there that cannot, nor should not, be ignored.)

The I-95 series does feature a fair amount of similarities with the two teams as well. Two teams that love to mash: the Yankees lead the American League in homeruns with 244, the Phillies led the National League with 224. The Yankees led the American League with 915 runs scored, the Phillies led the NL with 820 (the difference in both categories can be explained by a halfway decent designated hitter.) Two extremely rabid fanbases that can be seen here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oP95e7m-3mE or with the ability to take over an opposing stadium seen here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aL-Gf5ebpLQ.

Let's cover this one the old-fashioned way, with position-by-position analysis:

Starting rotation: top 3
NYY: Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte
PHI: Lee, Martinez, Hamels

The commonly held belief here is that Sabathia's and Lee's dominance will cancel each other out, putting the Burnett-Martinez matchup and Pettitte-Hamels as the key to the series. Sabathia has been outstanding in the 2009 playoffs, going 3 and 0 with a 1.19 ERA, while holding opposing hitters to a .200 batting average in three starts. Cliff Lee has been as good, if not better, going 2 and 0 with a 0.74 ERA, holding hitters to a .165 average. So game one's a toss-up (ok, they all are, but at least with the other pitching matchups, some kind of edge/advantage can be ascertained; not so with game one.) AJ Burnett has been an enigma this postseason (and his whole career.) He hasn't gotten a decision in three starts, compiling a 4.42 ERA. His first two starts, once against the Twins and his first start against the Angels, were solid. He allowed three earned runs in 12 1/3 IP, but his last start in game five against the Angels, he was torched for four earned runs in the first inning, and ultimately allowed six earned over six innings. Pedro Martinez was dominant in his only postseason start, dazzling the Dodgers with seven shutout innings. Of course, there's the history Pedro has at Yankee Stadium, including his infamous quote after a late-season struggle in the 2004 season, in which he remarked: "They beat me. They're that good right now. They're that hot. I just tip my hat and call the Yankees my daddy." Well. Ok then. Andy Pettitte holds the record for most postseason wins in MLB history with 16. Overall he's 16 and 9 with a 3.83 ERA in the playoffs. Cole Hamels is the Phillies version of AJ Burnett. Coming off a dominating 2008 that included a World Series MVP, Hamels has not come close to resembling his form of last year; his 4 and 0 record and 1.80 ERA '08 postseason numbers look just a tad better than his '09 postseason: 1 and 1 with a 6.75 ERA, with opposing batters hitting over .300 against him.

Slight Edge: NYY

Bullpen:
NYY: Aceves, Chamberlain, Coke, Guadin, Hughes, Marte, Rivera, Robertson
PHI: Bastardo, Durbin, Eyre, Happ, Lidge, Madson, Myers, Park

Both teams have above-average bullpens (when Lidge is Dependable Lidge instead of Highly Flammable Lidge), and you can go over the numbers all day long searching for the edge, but it comes down to the greatest closer in the history of baseball: Mariano Rivera. As long as he's still in pinstripes, the Yankees will always have the bullpen edge over every team they face.

Slight Edge: NYY

Catcher:
NYY: Posada
PHI: Ruiz

Carlos Ruiz has been the definition of clutch in the postseason over the last two years, but given Posada's body of work in October (namely, multiple rings) and despite his inability to understand AJ Burnett, you gotta go with the grizzled veteran for the world series.

Edge: NYY

First Base:
NYY: Teixeira
PHI: Howard

Mark Teixeira has been missing in action this postseason, whereas Ryan Howard is coming off an NLCS MVP award, and a series with the Dodgers where he clubbed two HRs and knocked in eight runs in five games. We know the type of player Teixeria can be, but all we can go by is his Houdini disappearing act in the playoffs, so the advantage here is obvious.

Major Edge: PHI

Second base:
NYY: Cano
PHI: Utley

Until Robinson Cano starts taking his Chase Utley-vitamins, this one's not close either.

Major Edge: PHI

Shortstop:
NYY: Jeter
PHI: Rollins

Say whatever you want about Jeter's range decreasing, being highly overrated, etc. He's Derek Jeter. He's baseball's version of Tom Brady. Rollins is no slouch either, and his defensive range, while along with Jeter not as good as it once was, is still vastly superior to The Captain's. However, Rollins has a ways to go and a few more rings to go to be considered with the legend status Jeter has earned.

Edge: NYY

Third Base:
NYY: Rodriguez
PHI: Feliz

Come on. Stop it. With the suddenly revamped A-Rod postseason demi god status, this one's a brutal mismatch.

Major Edge: NYY

Left Field:
NYY: Damon
PHI: Ibanez

Ibanez's profile: professional hitter at work. Damon: glass-arm/late-inning defensive replacement.

Slight Edge: PHI

Centerfield:
NYY: Cabrera
PHI: Victorino

Cabrera has had a few noteworthy "The Melk Man Delivers!" moments this season, but he isn't the high-energy, run-through a wall, clubhouse "why won't this guy shut up/at least he's highly productive on the field" type player Victorino has emerged as. Throw in the speed and stolen base threat, and this one's fairly obvious.

Edge: PHI

Right Field:
NYY: Swisher
PHI: Werth

Werth is good for the occasional tape-measure bomb and provides above-average speed and defense to the Phils. Swisher has every Yankees fan scratching their head saying, "why'd we sign this guy again?"

Major Edge: PHI

Coaching:
NYY: Giradi
PHI: Manuel

Giradi has been widely criticized as being a bad in-game manager, consistently making questionable decisions (pulling an effective Robertson for Aceves to lose game 5 in Anaheim and pinch-running for A-Rod in extra innings in the same game. Really? Despite A-Rod being a good base-runner and losing his potent bat if the game continues for a few innings? Questionable at best, egregious at worst. Manuel is not exactly a wizard in his in-game decision making either, but poll any Phillies player and they'll rave about how much they love playing for the guy. Cue in the "CHARLIE CHARLIE!" chants at Citizens Bank Park after last year's world series, and you'll see how much the guy has won over the city. To put the icing on this one, rings: Manuel 1, Giradi 0.

Edge: PHI

Prediction: Phillies in 6

3 comments:

  1. What, exactly, is the "definition of clutch"?

    ReplyDelete
  2. A-Rod's 0-for-9 in the world series with 14 strikeouts

    ReplyDelete
  3. Looks like the Phillies have the advantage then with Pedro Feliz........ /sarcasm

    ReplyDelete