No Hitters: What's All the Fuss About?

Just this past Saturday, Ubaldo Jimenez threw the first no hitter in the Colorado Rockies franchise history.  When the game was over, he threw his hands in the air jubilantly and was subsequently mobbed by his teammates in the infield.  The sports reporters discussed his place in history, alongside the select other pitchers who have thrown no-hitters.  Even the casual fans are impressed by this milestone achievement.  But is the no hitter really all that impressive?


Since 1920, there have been 151 regular season, complete game, no hitters thrown in MLB (including 3 for losing teams).  According to Baseball-Reference's Play Index, there have been 273,404 regular season starts during that period of time.  Approximately 0.05% of all MLB starts have resulted in no hitters since 1920.  So, it is undeniably a rare feat, worthy of recognition.  The problem, however, lies with the fact that quite often these no hitters are not impressive performances.  Of those 151 no hitters, 30 (or almost 20%), have come in a game where the pitcher walked 5 or more hitters.  If you drop that to 4 walks, the number jumps to 47, almost 33%.  Now, I may be wrong, but if I were to tell you that your favorite starter was going to walk 4 or 5 hitters in his next start, I think you would be a bit disappointed in that type of performance.

The reality is, that while some no hitters may be dominant performances by a pitcher, that isn't a necessary component.  No hitters require a certain amount of luck and a huge contribution from the team defense.  If we are to celebrate the no hitter as an achievement, it should be more of a team celebration than an individual one.  But if the no hitter isn't an indication of pitching dominance, what is?

How about the 17 strikeout performance?  Since 1920, there have been exactly 31 games where the starting pitcher racked up 17 Ks or more in 9 innings or less.  That's 0.01% of all regular season starts over that period of time.  Remember after Randy Johnson's perfect game in 2004, the "drought" of no hitters that lasted until Anibal Sanchez no hit the Diamondbacks in 2006?  Well, that's nothing compared to the drought of 17K games we're currently in, since Ben Sheets struck out 18 Atlanta Braves exactly two days before Randy Johnson threw his PG.

But no one celebrates 17 Ks the way they celebrate the no hitter.  Sure, ESPN will run a segment on SportsCenter showing the helpless opposing batters flailing at pitches for 9 innings, but there is no dog pile at the mound when the last out is recorded.  There is no place in the Hall of Fame for a baseball from each and every 17 K game.  These truly dominant pitching performances go by largely ignored by history.

Even if we drop the benchmark to 16 Ks, we still have fewer of those types of outings than we do no hitters.  We're talking about games where the pitcher, by himself, gets 60% of the outs.  The defense needs to make only 11 plays to get outs.  That is a true dominant performance.  That is pitching worth celebrating.

So, you and the Hall of Fame can have your no hitters, and I hope you enjoy them as much as the teams celebrating on the mound enjoy them.  But I'm going to hold out until the next 17 K performance before I'm willing to "ooh" and "aah" over an historical pitching accomplishment.